SPACE FINANCE INTELLIGENCE
Proprietary risk scoring and comparable company analysis for the space industry. The AstraVeris Risk Indicator (ARI) synthesizes launch reliability, financial health, and market positioning into a single 0-100 score.
The ARI is a proprietary analytical metric for informational purposes only. It is not a credit rating. AstraVeris is not an NRSRO.
SECTOR ARI ROLL-UP
Median ARI score per sector (operators with confidence tier ≤ 3). Sectors with fewer than 3 confidence-medium-or-better operators render as "Insufficient operator coverage." Click a sector to open its full profile.
| Sector | Operators | Median ARI | P25–P75 Range | Risk Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading sector roll-ups… | ||||
RISK DISTRIBUTION
SECTORS
COMPANY DIRECTORY
HOW ARI IS COMPUTED
ARI is a confidence-weighted composite of 11 factors, each scored 0–10, rolled up to a 0–100 score (higher = lower risk). Factors that cannot be computed from live data are not silently averaged in at face value — their weight is cut before the roll-up, so thinly-sourced companies cannot drift toward a misleading midpoint.
scoref ∈ [0, 10] · wf = factor weight (table below, Σ = 1.00) · mf = confidence multiplier: computed 1.0 / partial 0.7 / default 0.3
Source: src/finance/ari_scorer.py (FACTORS + _CONFIDENCE_MULTIPLIER), methodology v2.1
FACTOR TABLE — 11 FACTORS, WEIGHTS & DATA-SOURCE TIERS
| Factor | Category | Weight | What it measures | Source tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch reliability | OPERATIONAL | 10% | Pooled success rate from the launch-events database, banded piecewise into 0–10 (≥97% on 50+ launches → 9–10 … <80% → 0–3); small samples are hard-capped (score ≤5.0 under 10 launches, ≤7.0 under 20) and a clean crewed-flight record adds up to +1.5 (source: _score_launch_reliability in src/finance/ari_scorer.py) | T5 · Aggregator (LL2 + GCAT crosswalk) |
| Technology maturity | OPERATIONAL | 10% | On-orbit fleet size + launch history + company age | T3 · Academic/catalog (CelesTrak space_objects + operator reliability) |
| Management stability | OPERATIONAL | 10% | Stage-informed prior (editorial lane; SEC 8-K Item 5.02 automation pending) | T4 · Editorial |
| Financial health | FINANCIAL | 10% | Profitability and liquidity from primary filings | T1 · Primary (SEC EDGAR XBRL) |
| Debt leverage | FINANCIAL | 10% | total_debt ÷ total_assets from filed balance sheets | T1 · Primary (SEC EDGAR XBRL) |
| Cash runway | FINANCIAL | 10% | cash on hand ÷ quarterly burn rate | T1 · Primary (SEC EDGAR XBRL) |
| Revenue concentration | FINANCIAL | 10% | Government-award agency diversity (single-customer exposure) | T1 · Primary (USAspending.gov) |
| Competitive position | MARKET | 7.5% | Sector-cohort percentile from satellite fleet size + government contract share | T2 · Corporate composite (space_objects + USAspending.gov) |
| Market size | MARKET | 7.5% | Sector TAM lookup (static analyst estimate per sector) | T4 · Editorial (analyst estimate) |
| Growth trajectory | MARKET | 7.5% | Revenue trend from XBRL; falls back to launch-cadence YoY for launch companies | T1 · Primary (T5 when cadence fallback drives it) |
| Contract backlog | MARKET | 7.5% | Open government award backlog | T1 · Primary (USAspending.gov) |
Category roll-up: Operational 3 × 10% = 30% · Financial 4 × 10% = 40% · Market 4 × 7.5% = 30% (Σ = 100%). Tier scale: T1 Primary · T2 Corporate · T3 Academic · T4 Editorial · T5 Aggregator. Tiers shown are each factor's best-case source class — a factor that falls back to a pure stage-prior default degrades to T5 on that company. Risk labels on this page: ARI ≥ 62 Very Low · 55–61.9 Low-Moderate · 46–54.9 Moderate · 44–45.9 High · < 44 Very High (thresholds calibrated to the observed score distribution — the confidence-weighted composite compresses the range, so the cut-points are not round numbers; source: RISK_LABELS in src/finance/ari_scorer.py).
Full treatment — data lineage, small-sample caps, and outcome classification — in the Methodology. Per-company factor drill-ins (all 11 factor scores, rationales, and source badges) are part of the Intelligence tier.
VEHICLE RELIABILITY — UNDERWRITING SHEET
Insurance-grade reliability table for the active launch fleet. Each row gives the inputs an underwriter actually prices against: base rate in basis points, severity-adjusted expected loss per $100M insured, and a reliability tier derived from the Wilson 95% lower bound on the success rate (so small samples can’t flatter their way into A-tier). Defaults to vehicles still flying — switch scope to include retired hardware for historical context. Source: AstraVeris launch events database, full flight history per vehicle (records span the full spaceflight era — e.g. the Space Shuttle row covers all 135 flights, 1981–2011 — not a 2010+ window).
- Orbit scope: All orbit classes. Every rate on this sheet is fleet-wide across the vehicle's entire manifest (LEO / SSO / MEO / GTO / GEO / escape). Orbit-regime segmentation is pending backfill — do not read these as LEO-only or GEO-only rates.
- Date scope: Full flight history per vehicle, first flight through present. No date-window truncation and no recency weighting in the rates shown.
- Variant scope: Rows are variant-level only where the registry splits variants — currently Falcon 9, where the Falcon 9 Block 5 row excludes Block 1–4 flights (those sit in a separate, retired Falcon 9 Block 1–4 row). All other rows aggregate the full vehicle family across variants and configurations (e.g. the Atlas V row pools every 4xx/5xx configuration).
FINANCE INTELLIGENCE
A deeper view of the ARI framework — peer-group medians, top/bottom performers per peer group, and a confidence heatmap showing where the risk scores are load-bearing vs. editorial-derived. Published research; not a recommendation.
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