Rules & Scoring

Every point on the leaderboard traces back to one of the lines below — open any entry on the leaderboard to see its full line-by-line breakdown.

The format

Bracket points

Max bracket score: 12×3 + 12×2 + 8×2 + 16×2 + 8×4 + 4×7 + 2×12 + 20 + 10 = 222 (group picks score only once a group's six matches are final; knockout reach points land the moment a team is confirmed in that round).

Draft bonus points — per match, automatic

Penalty-shootout kicks never count as goals. Live matches score in real time (clean sheets settle at full time).

Match predictions — every match, all tournament

🛡️ Survivor side-pool

👟 Golden Boot tiebreaker

Pick the tournament's top scorer (and their goal count) with your bracket — it locks at the opening kickoff. Equal totals on the leaderboard rank first by whoever's pick currently holds the Golden Boot lead (⚡), then by entry creation time.

P(win pool) — simulated projections

After lock, a Monte-Carlo engine simulates the rest of the tournament 4,000 times: goals are independent Poisson draws (λ = 2.6 per match, split by bookmaker-implied team strength), group tables finish from the live standings, and knockouts use the real pairings once known (a seeded random draw stands in before FIFA's Round-of-32 grid is set). Every simulation re-scores every bracket; your P(win) is the share of simulated tournaments you'd win. Draft and prediction points are held at current values. Refreshed about every 30 minutes.

Where the data comes from

Scores, lineups, goals, cards, and field coordinates come from ESPN's public match feeds (site.api.espn.com · soccer/fifa.world), polled every 60 seconds while matches are live, every 10 minutes on tournament days otherwise. Group tables come from the same source's standings feed. The leaderboard recomputes after every poll. Win probabilities on match pages use an independent-Poisson goals model seeded with bookmaker over/under + moneyline (model inputs are shown on each match page). Team strength context — the #N badges next to teams and the simulation strengths — comes from the official FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (11 June 2026 pre-tournament release, checked daily for new releases); simulated win shares use FIFA's own 1/(1+10−Δpts/600) formula.

Tie-breaks

Equal totals rank by: ① whose Golden Boot pick currently leads the race, ② earlier entry creation time. (Simple, public, and impossible to game after the fact.)