Falcon 9 (all variants)
RELIABILITY & S/PF/F SPLIT
REUSE CURVE
Success rate by booster flight number — how this vehicle's flight-proven stages perform across reuses. Lower Wilson bound included for low-N flight counts.
| Flight | N | S / PF / F | Breakdown | Success | Wilson LB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flight 1 | 76 | 74 / 1 / 1 | 97.4% | 90.9% | |
| Flight 2 | 47 | 47 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 92.4% | |
| Flight 3 | 35 | 35 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 90.1% | |
| Flight 4 | 24 | 24 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 86.2% | |
| Flight 5 | 25 | 25 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 86.7% | |
| Flight 6 | 22 | 22 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 85.1% | |
| Flight 7 | 21 | 21 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 84.5% | |
| Flight 8 | 17 | 17 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 81.6% | |
| Flight 9 | 22 | 22 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 85.1% | |
| Flight 10 | 19 | 19 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 83.2% | |
| Flight 11 | 19 | 19 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 83.2% | |
| Flight 12 | 18 | 18 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 82.4% | |
| Flight 13 | 16 | 16 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 80.6% | |
| Flight 14 | 14 | 14 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 78.5% | |
| Flight 15 | 14 | 14 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 78.5% | |
| Flight 16 | 18 | 18 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 82.4% | |
| Flight 17 | 12 | 12 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 75.7% | |
| Flight 18 | 10 | 10 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 72.2% | |
| Flight 19 | 10 | 9 / 0 / 1 | 90.0% | 59.6% | |
| Flight 20 | 9 | 9 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 70.1% | |
| Flight 21 | 11 | 11 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 74.1% | |
| Flight 22 | 7 | 7 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 64.6% | |
| Flight 23 | 7 | 7 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 64.6% | |
| Flight 24 | 5 | 5 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 56.6% | |
| Flight 25 | 4 | 4 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 51.0% | |
| Flight 26 | 4 | 4 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 51.0% | |
| Flight 27 | 4 | 4 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 51.0% | |
| Flight 28 | 4 | 4 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 51.0% | |
| Flight 29 | 3 | 3 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 43.8% | |
| Flight 30 | 3 | 3 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 43.8% | |
| Flight 31 | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 34.2% | |
| Flight 32 | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 34.2% | |
| Flight 33 | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 34.2% | |
| Flight 34 | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100.0% | 20.7% |
SUBSYSTEM RELIABILITY
Per-system success rates aggregated across all flights with recorded subsystem outcomes. Systems without a row are "not tracked for this vehicle yet" — we never fabricate success.
RECENT FLIGHTS
| Date | Mission | Payload | Outcome | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 04, 2026 | Starlink Group 10-43 | LEO · 22,800 kg | Success | |
| Jun 03, 2026 | Starlink Group 17-47 | LEO · 22,800 kg | Success | |
| May 30, 2026 | Starlink Group 17-41 | LEO · 22,800 kg | Success | |
| May 29, 2026 | Starlink (10-53) | LEO · 22,800 kg | Success | |
| May 26, 2026 | Starlink (17-37) | LEO · 22,800 kg | Success | |
| May 25, 2026 | Starlink Group 10-47 | LEO · 22,800 kg | Success | |
| May 21, 2026 | Starlink (10-31) | LEO · 22,800 kg | Success | |
| May 20, 2026 | Starlink (17-42) | LEO · 22,800 kg | Success | |
| May 15, 2026 | Dragon CRS-2 SpX-34 | LEO · 22,800 kg | Success | |
| May 12, 2026 | NROL-172 | — · 22,800 kg | Success |
PAYLOAD & ORBIT MIX
OPERATOR CONTEXT
REGISTRY DATA
Source: space_launch_vehicle_registry.json · Operator page →
METHODOLOGY
Per-vehicle reliability is aggregated from the AstraVeris launch_events table with Wilson 95% lower-bound error estimates. Subsystem outcomes are extracted by a local Gemma model from primary-source articles — outcomes are never fabricated; absence of a row means "not tracked". Aspirational vehicles (not yet flown) carry registry-only metadata with explicit "Not yet flown" banners. Full specifications: /methodology/. Licensing terms: /data-licensing/.
Not investment advice. For insurance underwriting, verify against operator investigation reports.