SpaceX
Dominant global launch provider operating reusable Falcon 9/Heavy rockets, Starship super-heavy vehicle, Dragon crew/cargo spacecraft, and the Starlink broadband constellation with 8,000+ LEO satellites.
FINANCIAL HEALTH
CAPITAL & CREDIT PROFILE
Source: USAspending.gov award obligations matched to this company. Obligations, not recognized revenue.
SCHEDULE CREDIBILITY
How well this operator historically meets its own projected dates — launch NETs, company-announced roadmap milestones, and forward-dated facility plans. 100 = says what it does. Discount forward guidance accordingly.
Trend: worsening — last 12 mo score 87.9 (n=101) vs prior 100.0 (n=7)
| Source | Events | Late (share) | Median slip | Median slip, late only | Sub-score | On-time allowance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch NETs | 101 | 43 (42.6%) | 0.1 d | 3 d | 87.9 | 1 d |
| Roadmap milestones | 7 | 0 (0%) | 0 d | — | 100.0 | 30 d |
WORST SLIPS (RECEIPTS)
| Commitment | Source | Announced | Outcome | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDA Tranche 1 Tracking Layer A not yet flown; NET changed 2x | Launch NETs | 2026-06-30 | now NET 2026-12-31 | 184 d and counting |
| SDA Tranche 1 Transport Layer F not yet flown; NET changed 2x | Launch NETs | 2026-06-30 | now NET 2026-12-31 | 184 d and counting |
| SDA Tranche 1 Tracking Layer C not yet flown; NET changed 2x | Launch NETs | 2026-06-30 | now NET 2026-12-31 | 184 d and counting |
SCI = 100 × Σ(event credit) ÷ N over the trailing 36 months (2023-10-28 → 2026-10-27). Event credit = 1.0 when the commitment met its announced date (launches: net NET slip < 1 day; roadmap milestones & facility plans: within 30 days of the announced target window — month/year-precision targets count the whole period as on-time), else 30 ÷ (30 + days late beyond that allowance). Sources are pooled, so each source weighs by its event count. Sources: launch NET-change log (LL2 ingest, tracked since 2026-04-17; flown launches in coverage + not-yet-flown launches already slipped ≥1 day; cancelled launches excluded), roadmap registry milestones (company-announced targets, verified provenance only; open milestones past target count as late by days-overdue), facility_plans rows with target_date after announced_at (filing-dated rows excluded). Confidence: high ≥20 events, medium ≥8, low ≥5; no score below 5 events. 100 = says what it does.
Window: 2023-10-28 → 2026-10-27 (36 months) · launch NET log live since 2026-04-17
FLEET COMPOSITION
Every vehicle this operator has flown. Linked profiles carry the full reliability + reuse + subsystem record.
| Vehicle | Class | Launches | Success rate | Reuse | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcon 9 (all variants) | Medium | 611 | 99.5% | First-stage reusable | Profile → |
| Starship V1 0 | — | 16 | 56.2% | — | |
| Falcon Heavy | Heavy | 15 | 100.0% | First-stage reusable | Profile → |
| Falcon 9 (all variants) | Medium | 5 | 100.0% | First-stage reusable | Profile → |
| Falcon 1 | — | 5 | 40.0% | — | |
| Starship V2 | — | 4 | 25.0% | — | |
| Starship / Super Heavy | Super Heavy | 3 | 100.0% | Fully reusable | Profile → |
| Satcat 2026 232 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 225 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 219 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 204 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 200 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 197 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 196 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 193 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 192 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 190 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 184 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 183 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 181 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 177 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 175 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 171 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 166 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 161 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 160 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 143 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 140 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 135 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 072 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 070 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 068 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 063 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 059 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 057 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — |
SUBSYSTEM RELIABILITY
Aggregate subsystem outcomes across every vehicle this operator flies. Absence of a row means "not tracked yet" — never fabricated success.
RECENT LAUNCHES
| Date | Mission | Vehicle | Orbit | Outcome | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2027 | 5x Astranis MicroGEO | Falcon 9 (all variants) | GEO | Delayed | |
| Dec 31, 2026 | SDA Tranche 1 Tracking Layer A | Falcon 9 (all variants) | SSO | Delayed | |
| Dec 31, 2026 | SDA Tranche 1 Tracking Layer C | Falcon 9 (all variants) | SSO | Delayed | |
| Dec 31, 2026 | SDA Tranche 1 Tracking Layer E | Falcon 9 (all variants) | SSO | Delayed | |
| Dec 31, 2026 | SDA Tranche 1 Transport Layer F | Falcon 9 (all variants) | SSO | Delayed | |
| Dec 31, 2026 | SDA Tranche 2 Transport Layer A | Falcon 9 (all variants) | SSO | Delayed | |
| Dec 31, 2026 | SDA Tranche 2 Tracking Layer B | Falcon 9 (all variants) | SSO | Delayed | |
| Dec 31, 2026 | Griffin Mission One | Falcon Heavy | cislunar | Delayed | |
| Dec 31, 2026 | Blue Ghost Lunar Lander Mission 2 | Falcon 9 (all variants) | cislunar | Delayed | |
| Dec 31, 2026 | SDA Tranche 2 Transport Layer D | Falcon 9 (all variants) | SSO | Delayed |
ACTIVE TEST CAMPAIGNS
Pre-flight test events grouped by campaign. Underwriters read this section for anomaly record and readiness signal ahead of a first flight.
| Campaign | Vehicle | Tests | Success rate | Categories | Last test | Most recent anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (uncampaigned) | Starship V1 0 | 10 | 60% | Hop | May 05, 2021 | — |
CONSTELLATION ACTIVITY
Constellations operated by this company — live satellite counts from the CelesTrak/GCAT object catalog.
| Constellation | Active | Total | Decayed | Health | Most recent deployment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starlink | 10659 | 12806 | 2147 | 83.2% | Jul 11, 2026 |
RECENT DEALS & CONTRACTS
| Date | Type | Amount | Counterparty | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | Ipo | — | — | Medium |
| Jul 08, 2026 | Contract Award | — | SpaceX | Medium |
| Jul 01, 2026 | Ipo | — | — | High |
| Jun 28, 2026 | M And A | — | Elon Musk, Mesh Optical | Medium |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Vc Series A | $50.0M | — | Medium |
SECTOR POSITION
RECENT COVERAGE
| Date | Source | Headline |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | NASASpaceFlight | Possible Roberts Road Expansion as SpaceX pushes for Flight 16 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | TechCrunch — Space | Starlink seems to be working normally again in Ukraine |
| Oct 24, 2026 | PV Magazine (Global) | Couple travels through 10 African countries in solar-powered motorhome with battery storage |
| Oct 24, 2026 | NASASpaceFlight | NASA Artemis Update: SLS Stacking, Sortie Suit, Dual 2028 Paths |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Space.com | SpaceX launches Starlink satellites from California as Falcon 9 cadence slows (photos) |
REGISTRY DATA
Source: space_company_registry.json · Operator homepage → · SpaceX corporate homepage — operator confirmation for the launch_reusable sector (Falcon 9 / Heavy / Starship / Dragon / Starlink).
METHODOLOGY
Launch history and subsystem outcomes aggregate from AstraVeris's launch_events table with Wilson 95% lower bounds on success rates. ARI scores come from the 11-factor composite (/finance/methodology/). Constellation counts derive from the live CelesTrak/GCAT object catalog. Gov contracts from USAspending.gov awards; private deals from deduplicated pipeline deal extraction. Absence of a row means "not tracked" — we never fabricate. See /methodology/ for the full data model and /data-licensing/ for licensing terms.
Not investment advice. For insurance underwriting, verify against primary-source filings and operator investigation reports.